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Front Page » Archive » Vol
2 No 57 » here
Russia steps up to the plate
Putin continues to show diplomatic genius
and consolidates a string of small but important victories.
by Kevin
Potvin
The Republic
Putin continues to show diplomatic genius and consolidates
a string of small but important victories.
It is Russian President Vladimir Putin's personal mission
to restore Russia to its historic place as the prime European
and Asian power. He served a long and illustrious career
at the Soviet Union's KGB, in which he quickly rose to the
top, and described that organization's raison d'tre as a
force for destabilization and defeat of the West's NATO organization.
The fact that Russia has shed its control of surrounding
nations with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, renamed
its infamous KGB, and now engages with the West in extensive
trade, has not altered Putin's mission. Nor has he lost sight
of the two main obstacles to that mission, which remain NATO
and the UN. (The UN Security Council, where all UN power
is concentrated, is comprised of Russia, a cabal of Western
enemies of Russia--France, Britain, and the US--and
perennial Russian enemy, China.)
US President George Bush provided a stellar opportunity
for Putin when his administration dismissed main NATO powers
France and Germany for their equivocation over the wisdom
of an unprovoked attack on the centre of Arab power in Baghdad.
Putin secretly negotiated with Schroeder of Germany and Chirac
of Paris to put forward a new UN plan to install in Baghdad
a UN protectorate regime ahead of a US attack. At the same
time, NATO nearly split apart over the issue of preparing
Turkey's defences for a likely counterattack from Iraq.
The brilliance of Putin can be seen in how the main confrontation
has now shifted from one between the West and the Arab nations
to one between NATO and the UN. Important countries that
are members of both institutions, including Canada, along
with Britain, France, and Germany, have now been thrust into
the position of choosing their loyalties. Either NATO or
the UN will fail to survive. It's as though Putin slid his
bishop between his opponent's queen and knight, ensuring
that one must go. Such are the mistakes made by an over-eager
chess player like the US.
The chess game analogy can only go so far. Present world
circumstances would be represented by something like an eight-sided,
three-dimensional board, with dozens of players of varying
strengths and numbers of pieces. But even amidst this confusion,
one resemblance to traditional chess is unmistakable: the
most powerful player has been drawn out all over the board,
and is unsustainably overextended. A case for another strong
resemblance to chess could be made in how that same player--the
US--may, in frustration, tip the whole board to the floor,
which is what a nuke dropped on Iraq would do.
Short of that event happening, there is no question Russia
has already strengthened its position. A war in Iraq will
redraw the lines in the Middle East, but it will also redraw
the lines in Europe. Already, Russian business is invading
Europe in waves, and a new alliance between France, Germany,
and Russia is building. Britain could tip either way, depending
on minute questions to be resolved in unpredictable battlefield
events in Iraq.
This leaves Canada in a classic bind. Canada has always
had split loyalties between Britain, its founder, and the
US, its neighbour. So long as those two powers remain united,
Canada has no choice to make. Should they split, however,
Canada will have to decide which way to go. A split between
Britain and the US will take the shape of Britain jumping
the Atlantic ship to rejoin Europe and the emerging French,
German, and Russian alliance.
This event will confront Canada with its perennial existential
question: Is Canada European or is it North American? As
world events unfold at lightning speed, the time between
the formal posing of that question and the requirement for
a firm answer will likely be very short.
Our history gives at best an ambiguous guide. During past
pressing events, Canada declared a European bent, joining
World Wars I and II at their beginnings, rather than following
the US, which chose isolation and neutrality until several
years of war had passed in both cases.
We also followed the European course in staying away from
the Vietnam conflict, and only joined in subsequent US military
assaults against Iraq and Serbia when European powers had
also joined.
But economically, we have in recent years tied ourselves
much closer to the US than to Europe, through such treaties
as NAFTA. American executives have already begun to punish
their German counterparts as a result of Germany's position
against US plans for war. Canadian businesses will likely
be punished even more severely should Canada jump to Europe.
It is in Russia's interest to see the UN survive at the
expense of NATO, should one institution have to go. Thus,
the Russian, French, and German alliance will put its weight
behind the UN at the expense of NATO. Some indication of
which way Canada will go will be seen in the choice Canada
makes between NATO and the UN by the end of this week. So
far, Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Bill Graham has emphasized
a strong lean toward the UN.
But no certainty about Canada's position will emerge until
Britain makes its leanings firmly evident. And despite British
Prime Minister Tony Blair's strong pro-US pronouncements,
last weekend's two million protestors in the streets of London
only show what thin ice he's on.
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