The First Disruption
Rising oil prices are a warning we would do well to heed while we have the time
by Dan Crawford
The most interesting thing about the current run of new record oil prices is how we collectively ignore what they mean. Every newspaper article about oil uses some variation of the phrase, “record prices due to supply concerns.” If put more accurately, the words would read, “record oil prices due to an expected disruption.”
The price of oil directly reflects world sentiment about the likelihood of a supply disruption or shortage unfolding. Current record-high prices would indicate that the consensus of the world is that we are on the verge of a disruption. Further evidence of this comes from the IEA—the International Energy Agency—which released a report entitled “Saving Oil in a Hurry.” It serves as a guide for countries about how to dramatically reduce their oil consumption in the wake of a supply crisis.
Every government, every company, right down to every person, knows that we are dangerously close to a disruption, a disruption that would end, at least temporarily, the energy-bliss lifestyles we have wallowed in each and every day till now. Instead of preparing for the supply disruption event, we have collectively choosen to ignore it and live within the comforts provided by denial.
I called both the federal and provincial government hotlines in Canada asking for any emergency planning material in regards to an oil disruption or shortage, something similar to what the IEA has put out. Nothing exists. I then asked what the government advises its citizens to do and how to prepare for a disruption. Again, nothing. I was shocked. We know a problem exists, as is directly evidenced through the skyrocketing price of oil. Yet we continue to blatantly ignore the dangers. Could the reason be that planning for it would acknowledge that the problem exists, putting an end to our “i gnorance is bliss” way of life?
Denial is a form of panic. It is a defense mechanism, not a survival mechanism. It works as a thick fog that clouds over the obvious. It is not an easy mind set to break free from.
One way to help do this is by asking some simple questions. For instance, ask your employer what plan they have in place in the event of an oil disruption. Will employees be able to telecommute? Are there adequate resources at the office for employees to cycle to work? Will Human Resources be able to match-up employees for car-pooling and ride sharing? Will the company provide incentives for public transit?
Another way would be to call the government hotline like I did and ask what the plan is. Or you could also just look around your place of residence and imagine yourself not being able to go anywhere or buy anything. How long would you last? After doing these simple exercises, one is often left with only one option—writing your MLA and your MP.
As with any emergency planning, having ample stockpiles of food and water is a must. For an oil disruption, the main requirement is to remain mobile. This can be done by having a working bicycle with spare parts, hand tools and, the most important of all, racks, panniers or a trailer. These items are already in short supply and will be nearly impossible to find at the time of a crisis. Be sure to have familiarity with public transit in your area. Talk with neighbours and co-workers about car-pooling and ride-sharing. These are very small things that can be easily done. The most essential though, is to not panic.
Preparing for an inevitable oil disruption is one of the most responsible acts any person can do at this moment. What is not so obvious is the side-effect preparation has. It allows one to experience first-hand life's simplest axiom that logic always holds true. Acknowledging this one axiom can help forge a mind set that is willing to prepare for the next inevitable—the absolute end of cheap oil. When that hits, it’ll be time to take the seat belt off and get ready for a ride that will forever be known, at least to future generations, as The First Disruption.
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